What Happened
At 02:00 Venezuelan time on January 3, 2026, Delta Force operators extracted Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores from their military compound in Caracas. Precision airstrikes first disabled command infrastructure and telecommunications, severing the regime’s ability to coordinate resistance. The Trump administration frames this as executing a 2020 narcoterrorism indictment rather than an act of war, treating Maduro as a fleeing criminal rather than a head of state.
Why Now
The operation culminates eighteen months of escalation following Venezuela’s fraudulent July 2024 election, where opposition candidate Edmundo González won sixty-seven percent of the vote but Maduro declared himself the victor. Throughout 2025, the United States conducted an undeclared naval war in the Caribbean, striking over thirty Venezuelan oil tankers and imposing a de facto blockade. When Trump’s November ultimatum offering exile was rejected, military action became inevitable. The legal justification rests on designating Venezuela’s leadership as the Cartel of the Suns, a narcoterrorism organization that eliminates sovereign immunity protections.
The Power Struggle
Venezuela now faces three competing power centers. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez holds constitutional authority but lacks military backing. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López controls the armed forces and faces his own American indictment, making negotiated transition potentially attractive. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello commands police and paramilitary colectivo militias but has no exit strategy with a ten million dollar bounty. The military itself shows fracture potential, with junior officers suffering economic deprivation while regional commanders profit from illicit mining. The colectivos represent the most volatile variable, capable of devolving into urban warlords if central authority collapses completely.
Three Possible Outcomes
The week leading to January 10 presents three scenarios. Democratic restoration occurs if Padrino López negotiates with opposition leader González, who assumes the presidency as the legitimate 2024 election winner with international support and sanctions relief. Entrenched insurgency emerges if hardliners retreat to interior regions and wage asymmetric warfare using colectivo militias, transforming Venezuela into a failed state requiring prolonged American military involvement. Military junta materializes if the armed forces remove civilian Chavista leadership but refuse opposition control, declaring a Government of National Salvation and creating extended standoff with Washington.
Regional Fractures
Russia and China condemned the operation as armed aggression, viewing Maduro’s removal as strategic defeat. Cuba faces existential threat from losing subsidized Venezuelan oil. Within Latin America, Brazilian President Lula called the strike unacceptable, freezing relations with Washington. Colombian President Petro mobilized troops to the border, fearing spillover chaos. Argentine President Milei celebrated the capture, isolating Buenos Aires from leftist neighbors. The hemisphere now divides along ideological fault lines not seen since the Cold War.
Strategic Implications
The operation demonstrates that the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine now constitutes operational policy rather than rhetoric. The administration explicitly prioritizes hemispheric resource control over traditional diplomatic respect for sovereignty. Oil markets added a four dollar war risk premium, though Venezuelan production was already constrained by sanctions. The blockade effectively closed the Southern Caribbean to commercial shipping, disrupting regional trade.
The Verdict
The United States has assumed ownership of Venezuela’s transition by choosing kinetic decapitation over diplomatic patience. The next seven days determine whether this gamble produces democratic restoration or regional catastrophe. Venezuela remains in constitutional paralysis, its future dependent on whether remnant Chavista leadership fractures, whether the military chooses negotiation over resistance, and whether the opposition consolidates power quickly enough to prevent total state collapse. The hemisphere has entered uncharted territory with consequences that will reshape regional geopolitics for a generation.
