By Late 2025, the land of the Pharaohs isn't facing a recession—it is facing an arithmetical event horizon.

According to the latest strategic assessments for late 2025, the global system is undergoing a "Strategic Compression," where nation-states lose their buffers against instability. While many countries are struggling, the data indicates that Egypt faces the highest immediate probability of systemic chaotic collapse.

The Death Spiral: When Interest Eats Revenue

In the first four months of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, a terrifying metric emerged from Egypt’s Ministry of Finance.

The government collected 864 billion Egyptian pounds in total revenue. During that same period, it paid out 899.1 billion pounds in interest payments on public debt.

Read that again. The cost of merely servicing the debt—not paying down the principal, just the interest—now exceeds the entirety of the state’s income.

This is the definition of a "sovereign Ponzi scheme" in its final stages. When interest consumes 100% of revenue, the government effectively ceases to function as a governing body. It has zero fiscal space for public wages, hospitals, schools, or infrastructure. It must borrow new money simply to pay the interest on old money, while the actual business of running the country relies on the printing press or vanishing foreign reserves.